Youth unemployment and chicken shops have become unlikely economic bedfellows, according to research from consultancy Baringa, which argues that a surge in young people not in education, employment or training (Neets) is directly driving the rapid expansion of fast food across British high streets.
Baringa analysts have labelled the phenomenon the ‘Chicken Wing Economy,’ drawing a line between rising joblessness among 16 to 24-year-olds and a structural shift in how and where that age group spends what money it has. The consultancy’s data suggested that the annual rise in fast food restaurants outstripped growth in traditional sit-down restaurants by around five times between 2018 and 2025.
Youth unemployment chicken shops: the numbers behind the trend
The youth unemployment rate has risen from a low of 10.9 per cent in 2017 to 16.2 per cent, a level the consultancy notes is not far off that of Greece, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. The ONS puts the number of Neets at an estimated 1,012,000 young people aged 16 to 24 in January to March 2026, underlining the scale of the problem.
The true scale may be even larger. Research from the Youth Futures Foundation estimates that half of the current Neet population aged 18 to 24, roughly 486,000 young people, are ‘hidden’ and not captured in standard employment statistics. That finding adds a layer of complexity to any policy response, suggesting the official headline figure may understate the problem considerably.
Paddy Winters, partner in consumer products and retail at Baringa, said: ‘Chicken shops have become closely associated with Gen Z, encouraged by chicken-themed online influencers and social media content such as Amelia Dimoldenberg’s “Chicken Shop Date” or the American import “Hot Ones.”‘ He added that young people’s spending on fast food would far outpace spending on high street restaurants over the coming years.
A market set to be worth over £5 billion
Baringa’s modelling suggests the UK’s fast food chicken market is set to be worth over £5 billion by 2029. For context, consultancy Mintel put the chicken outlet market at about £2.3 billion in 2022. The gap between those two figures, if the projection holds, would represent a transformation of the sector rather than mere incremental growth.
Economists describe fast food and similarly priced options as ‘inferior goods’, meaning demand for them tends to rise when consumer incomes fall, in contrast to most other purchases such as restaurant meals or new cars. That dynamic is at work here, Baringa argues, with jobless young people gravitating towards KFC, Popeyes, and independent operators such as Morley’s and Wingstop.
Winters said: ‘With the recent expansion of US brands, such as Popeyes and Chick-fil-A, into the UK market, the “Chicken Wing Economy” seems set to stay on Britain’s high streets.’
Economists have widely attributed the rise in youth unemployment to the Labour government’s decision to raise taxes on businesses by over £25 billion via a hike in employers’ national insurance contributions. A rise in the national minimum wage and additional workers’ rights requirements have added further pressure on firms. The ONS said on Tuesday that higher costs across businesses had prevented a jobs recovery for workers across the country.
Established brands and US entrants pile into the market
The commercial opportunity has not gone unnoticed elsewhere in the food industry. Wingstop posted a 73 per cent uplift in revenue to £216 million last year and opened its 100th UK location. Domino’s Pizza has also moved into fried chicken, with its new chief executive Nicola Frampton noting that chicken sales had boosted revenue over the summer.
American chains are arriving in numbers. Slim Chickens, founded in Arkansas in 2003, entered the UK in 2020 and has laid out plans to expand to at least 50 sites. Popeyes, which launched in Britain five years ago, already operates about 100 venues and is aiming for 350.
With the ONS Neet count above one million and the Youth Futures Foundation warning that nearly half as many again may be hidden from the official data, the structural conditions feeding the Chicken Wing Economy show little sign of easing.
