The Burnham Healey Budget tax rises look set to extend a cycle of fiscal brinkmanship that has defined British economic policy since the pandemic, with the Treasury once again refusing to rule out measures that have left households and businesses in a state of prolonged uncertainty. Next month’s fiscal event arrives four weeks earlier than last year’s, yet the atmosphere around it is no calmer.
From Reeves to Burnham and Healey: the drumbeat goes on
The pattern was established well before the current pair arrived at the Treasury. Keir Starmer set the tone in the summer of 2024, warning publicly that the autumn would bring pain. It did: Rachel Reeves announced £40 billion of tax rises. The following year, with the economy stuttering, she returned for another £20 billion. The question now is how much further that logic extends under her successors.
Andy Burnham and John Healey have at least tried to compress the pre-Budget agony. Moving the date forward by four weeks is a practical acknowledgement that months of fiscal speculation carry their own economic cost. Healey has specifically said so in public, pointing to the damage done when individuals and businesses start making decisions based on what they think will be announced rather than what actually is. It is a reasonable position. It has not, however, stopped the speculation.
The Treasury’s standard response (not to engage with rumour) creates its own problem. When officials decline to deny something, markets and the commentariat read silence as confirmation. Talk of widening the so-called mansion tax net and increasing capital gains tax has gone unchallenged. In a febrile environment, that is enough to move behaviour.
The capital gains tax discussion has concrete numbers attached to it. Yahoo Finance UK reports that capital gains tax raised £24 billion in the 2025/26 tax year, a figure that makes the levy an obvious candidate for any chancellor looking to close a gap without touching income tax rates. Whether the rate rises, the threshold falls, or relief is curtailed, the tax is in play.
On the property side, one measure has already moved beyond speculation. According to UK Property Accountants, a High Value Council Tax Surcharge will apply from April 2028 to residential properties in England valued at £2 million or more, with valuations assessed through a targeted Valuation Office Agency exercise using 2026 figures. The policy is not immediate, but it marks a clear direction of travel on property taxation and gives higher-end homeowners a specific planning horizon to work to.
Burnham Healey Budget tax rises sit alongside early policy signals
Not everything from the new administration points towards higher costs. In his first week in office, Burnham announced that the bus fare cap in England outside London would revert to £2 from January, according to BBC News. For employers with large workforces of commuters, that is a small but real piece of good news on household budgets.
More consequential for business is Burnham’s position on employers’ national insurance contributions. During the Makerfield by-election, he said he wanted to reconsider the increase in employers’ NICs announced in Labour’s 2024 Budget, which took effect in April 2025, according to Saffery. That is a significant signal. The NICs rise has been a consistent point of complaint from employers since it was announced, and any reversal or softening would represent a material change in the cost base for labour-intensive sectors.
Whether Burnham can translate that stated preference into Budget policy is another matter. Borrowing costs remain uncomfortably high, and the fiscal rules that bind the Treasury are, as ever, wafer-thin. The underlying pressures (welfare spending, debt servicing, the slow bleed of fiscal drag) have not eased. The result is the familiar contortion: decisions delayed, numbers arranged to stay technically within the rules, and the next fiscal event already casting its shadow over business planning long before the chancellor stands up.
The employers’ NICs question is the one to watch when Burnham and Healey present their numbers next month.
